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Lorient vs Troyes

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lorient win: 55.0%

Draw: 23.6%

Troyes win: 21.4%

Predicted: Lorient

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 48.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.85

More corners: Lorient (60.4% home / 39.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lorient

Yes

Probability Lorient wins or draws: 69.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lorient Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Lorient (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lorient win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.