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Lyon vs Lille

Fri 29 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lyon win: 41.7%

Draw: 28.8%

Lille win: 29.5%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.58

More corners: Lyon (52.2% home / 47.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 62.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 30%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.