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Lyon vs Marseille

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lyon win: 44.7%

Draw: 27.8%

Marseille win: 27.6%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.62

More corners: Lyon (55.4% home / 44.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 64.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.