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Lyon vs Monaco

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lyon win: 47.6%

Draw: 26.4%

Monaco win: 26.1%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Lyon (55.0% home / 45.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 59.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 26%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.