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Lyon vs Rennes

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lyon win: 49.4%

Draw: 25.9%

Rennes win: 24.7%

Predicted: Lyon

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Lyon (58.1% home / 41.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 60.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lyon Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Lyon (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.