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Marseille vs Auxerre

Fri 23 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 57.6%

Draw: 21.3%

Auxerre win: 21.0%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.43

More corners: Marseille (55.4% home / 44.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 70.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 21%). (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.