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Marseille vs Le Mans FC

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 57.2%

Draw: 23.5%

Le Mans FC win: 19.3%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 48.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Marseille (56.4% home / 43.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 61.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 24%). (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.