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Marseille vs Lille

Fri 15 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 47.6%

Draw: 22.9%

Lille win: 29.5%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Lille (49.6% home / 50.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 66.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 30%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.