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Marseille vs Lyon

Fri 19 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 50.8%

Draw: 23.0%

Lyon win: 26.3%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.43

More corners: Marseille (53.6% home / 46.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lyon

Yes

Probability Lyon wins or draws: 61.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 26%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lyon win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.