← Back to fixtures

Marseille vs Nice

Fri 04 Dec 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 58.8%

Draw: 20.8%

Nice win: 20.4%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.46

More corners: Marseille (53.3% home / 46.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 71.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (59% vs next-best 21%). (59.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.