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Marseille vs Paris SG

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 30.9%

Draw: 24.8%

Paris SG win: 44.3%

Predicted: Paris SG

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Paris SG (38.6% home / 61.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Paris SG

Yes

Probability Paris SG wins or draws: 69.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Paris SG Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 31%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Paris SG (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Paris SG win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.