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Marseille vs Strasbourg

Fri 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Marseille win: 54.6%

Draw: 20.9%

Strasbourg win: 24.5%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Marseille (53.1% home / 46.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 59.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.