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Monaco vs Lille

Fri 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monaco win: 42.8%

Draw: 26.3%

Lille win: 30.9%

Predicted: Monaco

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Lille (49.9% home / 50.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 66.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Monaco Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 31%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.