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Monaco vs Marseille

Sun 30 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monaco win: 45.4%

Draw: 26.0%

Marseille win: 28.6%

Predicted: Monaco

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.56

More corners: Monaco (53.4% home / 46.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 64.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Monaco Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 29%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.