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Monaco vs Rennes

Fri 09 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monaco win: 50.2%

Draw: 24.6%

Rennes win: 25.2%

Predicted: Monaco

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Monaco (57.5% home / 42.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 61.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Monaco Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 25%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.