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Nice vs Le Mans FC

Fri 04 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 40.0%

Draw: 31.1%

Le Mans FC win: 28.9%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 49.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.56

More corners: Nice (53.8% home / 46.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nice

Yes

Probability Nice wins or draws: 56.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Nice Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nice win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.