← Back to fixtures

Nice vs Lille

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 25.6%

Draw: 26.0%

Lille win: 48.4%

Predicted: Lille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Lille (37.3% home / 62.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 68.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 26%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lille (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.