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Nice vs Lorient

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 38.4%

Draw: 29.1%

Lorient win: 32.5%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.6

More corners: Nice (54.7% home / 45.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lorient

Yes

Probability Lorient wins or draws: 65.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lorient win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.