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Nice vs Toulouse

Fri 12 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 37.0%

Draw: 29.0%

Toulouse win: 33.9%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.61

More corners: Nice (51.7% home / 48.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 66.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.