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Nice vs Troyes

Fri 27 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nice win: 49.0%

Draw: 23.4%

Troyes win: 27.6%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 47.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.98

More corners: Nice (56.6% home / 43.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nice

Yes

Probability Nice wins or draws: 65.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Nice Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 28%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nice win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.