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Paris FC vs Le Havre

Fri 01 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paris FC win: 45.0%

Draw: 28.4%

Le Havre win: 26.6%

Predicted: Paris FC

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Paris FC (60.8% home / 39.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Paris FC

Yes

Probability Paris FC wins or draws: 70.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Paris FC Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Paris FC (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Paris FC win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.