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Paris FC vs Strasbourg

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Paris FC win: 35.9%

Draw: 28.4%

Strasbourg win: 35.6%

Predicted: Paris FC

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.59

More corners: Paris FC (54.5% home / 45.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Strasbourg

Yes

Probability Strasbourg wins or draws: 56.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Strasbourg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (57.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.