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Rennes vs Marseille

Fri 11 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Rennes win: 41.2%

Draw: 24.8%

Marseille win: 34.1%

Predicted: Rennes

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.61

More corners: Rennes (50.7% home / 49.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 63.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.