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Rennes vs Monaco

Fri 11 Dec 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Rennes win: 43.3%

Draw: 23.3%

Monaco win: 33.5%

Predicted: Rennes

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.4

More corners: Rennes (51.5% home / 48.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 61.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Rennes Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 34%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (61.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.