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Rennes vs Nice

Fri 30 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Rennes win: 49.0%

Draw: 23.7%

Nice win: 27.3%

Predicted: Rennes

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.48

More corners: Rennes (53.7% home / 46.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 67.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Rennes Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 27%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.