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Rennes vs Paris SG

Fri 05 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Rennes win: 28.1%

Draw: 28.3%

Paris SG win: 43.6%

Predicted: Paris SG

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.54

More corners: Paris SG (41.2% home / 58.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Paris SG

Yes

Probability Paris SG wins or draws: 71.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Paris SG Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 28%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Paris SG (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Paris SG win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.