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Rennes vs Troyes

Fri 16 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Rennes win: 54.5%

Draw: 21.1%

Troyes win: 24.4%

Predicted: Rennes

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.88

More corners: Rennes (56.6% home / 43.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 66.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Rennes Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.