← Back to fixtures

Strasbourg vs Lille

Fri 30 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Strasbourg win: 37.6%

Draw: 28.3%

Lille win: 34.1%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.51

More corners: Lille (46.1% home / 53.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lille

Yes

Probability Lille wins or draws: 65.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.