← Back to fixtures

Strasbourg vs Rennes

Fri 23 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Strasbourg win: 46.2%

Draw: 26.1%

Rennes win: 27.7%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.39

More corners: Strasbourg (53.1% home / 46.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 59.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Strasbourg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 28%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.