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Strasbourg vs Troyes

Sat 15 May 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Strasbourg win: 55.8%

Draw: 22.5%

Troyes win: 21.7%

Predicted: Strasbourg

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 48.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.79

More corners: Strasbourg (62.2% home / 37.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Strasbourg

Yes

Probability Strasbourg wins or draws: 66.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Strasbourg Clearest lean of the available outcomes (56% vs next-best 22%). (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Strasbourg (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Strasbourg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.