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Toulouse vs Le Havre

Fri 18 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Toulouse win: 48.1%

Draw: 27.5%

Le Havre win: 24.4%

Predicted: Toulouse

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Toulouse (53.8% home / 46.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 66.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Toulouse Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 28%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.