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Toulouse vs Lens

Fri 29 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Toulouse win: 25.3%

Draw: 24.4%

Lens win: 50.3%

Predicted: Lens

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.63

More corners: Lens (37.1% home / 62.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lens

Yes

Probability Lens wins or draws: 68.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lens Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 25%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lens (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lens win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.