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Toulouse vs Marseille

Fri 30 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Toulouse win: 28.4%

Draw: 26.9%

Marseille win: 44.7%

Predicted: Marseille

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.67

More corners: Marseille (45.3% home / 54.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Marseille

Yes

Probability Marseille wins or draws: 68.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Marseille Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Marseille win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.