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Toulouse vs Monaco

Fri 12 Feb 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Toulouse win: 33.3%

Draw: 25.3%

Monaco win: 41.4%

Predicted: Monaco

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.52

More corners: Monaco (47.1% home / 52.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Monaco

Yes

Probability Monaco wins or draws: 62.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Monaco Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 33%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Monaco win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.