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Toulouse vs Nice

Fri 22 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Toulouse win: 48.9%

Draw: 25.8%

Nice win: 25.4%

Predicted: Toulouse

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.6

More corners: Toulouse (55.2% home / 44.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 66.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Toulouse Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 26%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.