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Troyes vs Angers

Fri 09 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 38.1%

Draw: 23.9%

Angers win: 38.0%

Predicted: Troyes

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.78

More corners: Angers (49.1% home / 50.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Angers

Yes

Probability Angers wins or draws: 62.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Angers win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.