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Troyes vs Auxerre

Fri 19 Mar 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 33.3%

Draw: 29.4%

Auxerre win: 37.3%

Predicted: Auxerre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Auxerre (34.0% home / 66.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Auxerre

Yes

Probability Auxerre wins or draws: 63.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Auxerre (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Auxerre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (63.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.