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Troyes vs Brest

Fri 30 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 33.3%

Draw: 29.5%

Brest win: 37.2%

Predicted: Brest

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 51.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.8

More corners: Brest (38.0% home / 62.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brest

Yes

Probability Brest wins or draws: 64.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Corners Brest (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.