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Troyes vs Le Havre

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 32.4%

Draw: 29.5%

Le Havre win: 38.1%

Predicted: Le Havre

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.7

More corners: Le Havre (43.6% home / 56.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Le Havre

Yes

Probability Le Havre wins or draws: 65.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Le Havre win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.