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Troyes vs Le Mans FC

Fri 30 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 31.7%

Draw: 32.0%

Le Mans FC win: 36.3%

Predicted: Le Mans FC

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.72

More corners: Le Mans FC (36.2% home / 63.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Le Mans FC

Yes

Probability Le Mans FC wins or draws: 59.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Corners Le Mans FC (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Le Mans FC win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (59.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.