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Troyes vs Lens

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 21.0%

Draw: 25.4%

Lens win: 53.6%

Predicted: Lens

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.73

More corners: Lens (30.9% home / 69.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lens

Yes

Probability Lens wins or draws: 73.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lens Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 25%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Lens (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lens win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.