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Troyes vs Nice

Fri 26 Feb 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 33.8%

Draw: 28.4%

Nice win: 37.8%

Predicted: Nice

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.72

More corners: Nice (36.2% home / 63.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Nice

Yes

Probability Nice wins or draws: 66.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Corners Nice (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Nice win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.