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Troyes vs Rennes

Fri 01 Jan 2027, 23:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 29.8%

Draw: 26.1%

Rennes win: 44.1%

Predicted: Rennes

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.71

More corners: Rennes (39.1% home / 60.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Rennes

Yes

Probability Rennes wins or draws: 66.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Rennes Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Rennes (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Rennes win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.