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Troyes vs Toulouse

Fri 23 Apr 2027, 22:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Troyes win: 30.3%

Draw: 30.5%

Toulouse win: 39.2%

Predicted: Toulouse

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.71

More corners: Toulouse (36.1% home / 63.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Toulouse

Yes

Probability Toulouse wins or draws: 66.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Toulouse Clearest lean of the available outcomes (39% vs next-best 30%). (39.0% model probability) Low

Corners Toulouse (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Toulouse win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.