← Back to fixtures

ATL vs BAL

Win Probability

ATL win: 51.0%

BAL win: 49.0%

Predicted winner: ATL

Total Runs

9.0

Likely range: 7.5 – 10.5

ATL: 4.61 · BAL: 4.42

Total Hits

16.6

ATL: 8.46 · BAL: 8.12

Home Runs

2.51

ATL: 1.3 · BAL: 1.21

Strikeouts

17.5

ATL: 8.41 · BAL: 9.09

Form & Streak

ATL: 74-50 this season, won 1 straight

BAL: 59-64 this season, lost 1 straight

Elo Rating

ATL: 1534.9 · BAL: 1503.4

Head-to-Head

BAL 8 – 8 ATL (16 meetings)

Prediction Insights

ATL is favoured on team strength -- rated 32 Elo points higher than BAL based on results over the last several seasons.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.