PHI vs BAL
Win Probability
PHI win: 49.2%
BAL win: 50.8%
Predicted winner: BAL
Total Runs
Over 8.5
Model confidence: 57.9%
PHI: Over 3.5 (78.3%) · BAL: Over 3.5 (81.1%)
Total Hits
16.6
PHI: 8.69 · BAL: 7.88
Home Runs
2.55
PHI: 1.4 · BAL: 1.15
Strikeouts
17.8
PHI: 8.66 · BAL: 9.17
Form & Streak
PHI: 63-62 this season, lost 4 straight
BAL: 60-65 this season, won 1 straight
Elo Rating
PHI: 1533.7 · BAL: 1503.5
Head-to-Head
BAL 9 – 8 PHI (17 meetings)
Prediction Insights
BAL is favoured on team strength -- rated 30 Elo points higher than PHI based on results over the last several seasons.
BAL leads the head-to-head series 9-8 across their last 17 meetings.
These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.