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BAL vs BOS

Win Probability

BAL win: 44.2%

BOS win: 55.8%

Predicted winner: BOS

Total Runs

8.5

Likely range: 7.0 – 10.0

BAL: 4.09 · BOS: 4.42

Total Hits

16.4

BAL: 7.78 · BOS: 8.62

Home Runs

2.27

BAL: 1.1 · BOS: 1.17

Strikeouts

17.6

BAL: 9.01 · BOS: 8.57

Form & Streak

BAL: 59-64 this season, lost 1 straight

BOS: 60-62 this season, won 1 straight

Elo Rating

BAL: 1503.4 · BOS: 1521.4

Head-to-Head

BOS 64 – 52 BAL (116 meetings)

Prediction Insights

BOS is favoured on team strength -- rated 18 Elo points higher than BAL based on results over the last several seasons.
BOS leads the head-to-head series 64-52 across their last 116 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.