← Back to fixtures

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Win Probability

Baltimore Orioles win: 44.2%

Boston Red Sox win: 55.8%

Predicted winner: Boston Red Sox

Total Runs

8.5

Likely range: 7.0 – 10.0

Baltimore Orioles: 4.09 · Boston Red Sox: 4.42

Total Hits

16.4

Baltimore Orioles: 7.78 · Boston Red Sox: 8.62

Home Runs

2.27

Baltimore Orioles: 1.1 · Boston Red Sox: 1.17

Strikeouts

17.6

Baltimore Orioles: 9.01 · Boston Red Sox: 8.57

Form & Streak

Baltimore Orioles: 59-64 this season, lost 1 straight

Boston Red Sox: 60-62 this season, won 1 straight

Elo Rating

Baltimore Orioles: 1503.4 · Boston Red Sox: 1521.4

Head-to-Head

Boston Red Sox 64 – 52 Baltimore Orioles (116 meetings)

Prediction Insights

BOS is favoured on team strength -- rated 18 Elo points higher than BAL based on results over the last several seasons.

BOS leads the head-to-head series 64-52 across their last 116 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.