← Back to fixtures

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Win Probability

San Diego Padres win: 54.5%

Miami Marlins win: 45.5%

Predicted winner: San Diego Padres

Total Runs

9.0

Likely range: 7.5 – 10.5

San Diego Padres: 4.39 · Miami Marlins: 4.56

Total Hits

16.5

San Diego Padres: 8.5 · Miami Marlins: 7.96

Home Runs

2.32

San Diego Padres: 1.23 · Miami Marlins: 1.09

Strikeouts

16.1

San Diego Padres: 7.81 · Miami Marlins: 8.26

Form & Streak

San Diego Padres: 61-63 this season, lost 1 straight

Miami Marlins: 60-62 this season, lost 9 straight

Elo Rating

San Diego Padres: 1516.7 · Miami Marlins: 1492.4

Head-to-Head

Miami Marlins 17 – 21 San Diego Padres (38 meetings)

Prediction Insights

SDN is favoured on team strength -- rated 24 Elo points higher than MIA based on results over the last several seasons.

SDN leads the head-to-head series 21-17 across their last 38 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.