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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

Win Probability

Miami Marlins win: 43.4%

New York Mets win: 56.6%

Predicted winner: New York Mets

Total Runs

Over 8.5

Model confidence: 60.5%

Miami Marlins: Over 4.5 (54.3%) · New York Mets: Over 3.5 (75.2%)

Total Hits

17.0

Miami Marlins: 8.57 · New York Mets: 8.48

Home Runs

2.42

Miami Marlins: 0.98 · New York Mets: 1.44

Strikeouts

16.3

Miami Marlins: 7.94 · New York Mets: 8.39

Form & Streak

Miami Marlins: 60-63 this season, lost 10 straight

New York Mets: 51-72 this season, lost 2 straight

Elo Rating

Miami Marlins: 1490.4 · New York Mets: 1477.4

Head-to-Head

New York Mets 68 – 49 Miami Marlins (117 meetings)

Prediction Insights

NYN leads the head-to-head series 68-49 across their last 117 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.